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March 12, 2006

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Ray has been writing on this same topic since 1999. It doesn't sound like he's changed his views that much. I read The Age of Spiritual Machines about 5-6 years ago. Maybe I'll pick up his new one to see how much his vision has drifted since then.

Futurists are a weird lot.

A fun book to follow this would be Accelerando by Charles Stross. Its basicaly a non-fiction treatment of Rays ideas....or the other way around depending on your perspective :)

Also a must read is Vernor Vinges original essay on the Singularity, he has a broader approach to the topic, and includes some verbal error bars indicating possible things that could block the development of the singluarity.

All in all I have found nothing that even strikes me as a decent counter argument to Ray. The best people have so far is that not all exponential trends go on forever. Which is true as far as it goes but I have seen no one follow that up with a detailed argument as to why we should expect moores and similar laws to stop.

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